A preliminary District Analysis of Timor-Leste’s Parliamentary Election, 2012.

Michael Leach
Swinburne University of Technology
14 July 2012


The table below compares the performance of the four newly elected parliamentary parties with their performance in 2007, on a district-by-district basis.

The first figure is the party performance in 2012. The figure beside it in brackets is the net change from the party’s 2007 result. Frente-Mudanca did not run in 2007.

The districts figures are based on provisional final STAE figures. The national figures are those certified by the National Election Commission (CNE).

The official CNE declaration on distribution of seats has delivered CNRT 30 seats, Fretilin 25, the Democratic Party 8, and Frente-Mudança 2.

2012 Party Results by District / Change in Party Vote from 2007 (%)
 DISTRICT CNRT FRETILIN PD FM
Aileu 52.54 (+32.08) 14.94 (+6.59) 6.02 (- 0.11) 1.38
Ainaro 37.19 (+25.39) 13.29 (+3.32) 15.05 (+2.28) 1.81
Baucau 23.05 (+9.63) 51.38 (-11.09) 3.96 (+1.24) 4.74
Bobonaro 37.65 (+17.09) 17.77 (+1.68) 14.53 (-4.78) 2.3
Covalima 31.83 (+16.4) 26.41 (-2.16) 19.77 (-0.93) 3.05
Dili 49.54 (+4.31) 28.4 (+6.02) 7.05 (+0.36) 1.97
Ermera 40.67 (+27.02) 19.92 (+6.02) 6.95 (-15.02) 2.82
Lautem 20.24 (+5.63) 43.86 (-1.67) 20.64 (+6.95) 1.84
Liquica 41.99 (+3.03) 23.79 (+11.79) 12.71 (+0.33) 4.18
Manatuto 45.39 (+12.21) 20.52 (+2.95) 12.06 (-0.64) 1.42
Manufahi 31.37 (+17.55) 31.86 (+6.43) 8.09 (-3.63) 1.67
Oecusse 38.98 (+4.3) 18.6 (-8.93) 12.15 (+0.43) 10.37
Viqueque 16.29 (+3.67) 59.52 (-0.32) 8.43 (+4.57) 2.51
NATIONAL 36.68 (+12.58) 29.89 (+0.87) 10.3 (-1) 3.11 (+3.11)
Preliminary Conclusions

CNRT gained significant swings in all 13 districts compared to 2007, ranging from a massive 32.08% in Aileu, to a low of 3.03% in Liquica. The party’s largest increases were in Aileu, Ermera and Ainaro, suggesting CNRT benefitted overwhelmingly from the collapse of smaller non-Fretilin parties in the Mambae-speaking areas. In particular, CNRT benefited from the collapse of the former ASDT-PSD vote in Aileu and Ainaro, and a major fall in the PD vote in Ermera.

Next down the list were Manufahi, Bobonaro and Covalima at 16-17%, where similar factors applied.

In the eastern districts CNRT received more modest swings, with the notable exception of a strong performance in Baucau district, with a swing to the party of close to +10%.

CNRT's success came overwhelmingly at the expense of smaller western-based parties such as ASDT, PSD, PUN, which received no seats. PDs vote was clearly affected as well, though in their case the losses were offset by a stronger performance in the east of the country. CNRT also appears to have taken votes from Fretilin (and UNDERTIM) in Baucau, though Fretilin’s losses here were offset by a modest vote recovery in the western districts.

FRETILIN gained modest swings in 8 of 13 districts, ranging from a strong swing of close to +12% in Liquica, to a low of +1.68 in Bobonaro. Aside from the substantial recovery (from a low 2007 base) in Liquica, next down the list were moderate swings in the region of 6% in Aileu, Dili, Ermera and Manufahi (the only ‘western’ district in which Fretilin led the count).

These gains were balanced by substantial swings against the party in Baucau and Oecusse, and smaller negative swings in Covalima, Lautem, and Viqueque. Notably, the largest swings against Fretilin occurred in two districts where Frente-Mudanca performed well (in Oecusse, owing to the high local profile of Jorge Teme, and in Baucau).

Notably, Fretilin received a net average +3.73 swing in the 10 western districts, offset by a - 5.6% swing against them in the 3 eastern districts.
 Fretilin vote share 2007 2012 % change
10 Districts 18.86% 22.59% +3.73
3   Districts  57.5% 51.9% -5.6

Because the weight of the national population lies in the 10 districts, this pattern translated into a national swing of 0.87% in Fretilin’s favour.

Though it is obvious that the association between region and party affiliation remains strong, it has moderated slightly since 2007: with Fretilin’s vote staging a minor recovery in the west, and CNRT and PD increasing their vote in the east. This trend, already evident in the presidential elections, represents a welcome – if modest – sign that regionalised vote affiliations are trending away from their 2007 peak.

PD gained modest swings in 7 of 13 districts, with the largest increases in the eastern districts of Lautem (+7%) and Viqueque (+4.5%), allowing them to narrowly outperform CNRT in Lautem (making it the only district in which CNRT came third).

This represents a significant shift in the party’s vote base, with 23% of its vote now coming from the eastern districts, compared with just 13% in 2007. Aside from modest gain of just over 2% in Ainaro, other swings were negligible.

These small gains were reversed by a major 15% swing against the party in Ermera, and smaller but significant reversals in Bobonaro and Manufahi.

Frente-Mudanca disproportionately owes their two seats to their 10% vote share in Oecusse, reflecting the local profile of Secretary of State for Oecusse and one-time Ambassador to Australia, Jorge Teme. This accounted for some 20% of their national return. The other relatively strong performances that saw them exceed the 3% threshold were 4-5% vote shares in Baucau and Liquica.

These are just preliminary notes and observations. All comments, corrections, additions or clarifications are welcome.
mleach@swin.edu.au

Source husi ETAN